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Four AI Futures MicroSim

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Run the Four Futures MicroSim

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Prompt

Create a p5.js MicroSim that generates a line chart. Across the bottom x axis draw an axis label "Time". In the center of the Time axis draw a vertical brown line with the label "Now".

Across the left vertical axis draw an axis with the label "Rate of Improvement".

Draw four lines on the chart:

  1. Growth and Decline: initial rapid growth but peaking now and will be declining in the future
  2. Growth and Flattening: initial rapid growth but flatting out
  3. Linear Growth: initial rapid growth but slow linear growth
  4. Exponential Growth: initial rapid growth and continued exponential growth

Add a checkbox control to display each option.

Self-Assessment Quiz

Test your understanding of the four possible AI futures.

Question 1: What does the "Growth and Decline" scenario suggest about AI development?

  1. AI will continue improving forever
  2. AI improvement may peak and then decline due to fundamental limitations
  3. AI development has not started yet
  4. AI will remain exactly the same
Answer

B) AI improvement may peak and then decline due to fundamental limitations - This scenario represents the possibility that AI has hit or will hit fundamental barriers that cause the rate of improvement to slow and reverse.

Question 2: What characterizes the "Exponential Growth" scenario?

  1. AI improvement stops immediately
  2. AI improvement continues at an accelerating rate into the future
  3. AI improvement follows a straight line
  4. AI improvement is random and unpredictable
Answer

B) AI improvement continues at an accelerating rate into the future - The exponential scenario suggests that AI capabilities will continue to double at regular intervals, leading to dramatic future capabilities.

Question 3: Why is the "Now" line significant in this visualization?

  1. It marks when AI was invented
  2. It separates known historical data from projected future scenarios
  3. It indicates when AI will become conscious
  4. It shows the peak of all AI development
Answer

B) It separates known historical data from projected future scenarios - The "Now" line distinguishes between observed past performance and the different possible future trajectories being considered.

Question 4: How should organizations use these four scenarios for strategic planning?

  1. Pick one scenario and ignore the others
  2. Consider multiple scenarios and develop strategies that are robust across possibilities
  3. Wait until one scenario is proven correct
  4. Assume the worst scenario will happen
Answer

B) Consider multiple scenarios and develop strategies that are robust across possibilities - Good strategic planning considers multiple possible futures and develops flexible approaches that can adapt to different outcomes.

Question 5: What does the "Growth and Flattening" scenario imply for long-term AI capabilities?

  1. AI will disappear entirely
  2. AI will reach a plateau where improvement continues but at a much slower rate
  3. AI will exceed human intelligence immediately
  4. AI development will reverse course
Answer

B) AI will reach a plateau where improvement continues but at a much slower rate - This scenario suggests diminishing returns where AI capabilities level off rather than continuing to grow exponentially.